Openings rose 14.7%, but advertised pay rose 3.2%

In September 2026, Mynavi Tenshoku, en Tenshoku, doda and type carried 339,803 full-time job postings, up 14.67% from a year earlier.

Across the same dataset, average advertised monthly pay was ¥298,317, up 3.24% year over year. The quantity of postings grew at a double-digit rate while the average lower-bound pay written in those postings rose at a much slower pace.

This is not the realized salary of all Japanese workers or the final offer received by job changers. FROG calculates the figure by extracting and averaging the lower bound of pay stated in postings on the four sites.

August showed the same split

In August, full-time postings totaled 339,748, up 16.25% year over year, while average advertised monthly pay was ¥297,655, up 3.01%.

Two months do not establish a universal law for Japan's labor market. They do show, however, that recent posting growth and advertised-pay growth on the same four sites have moved at very different rates.

A headline saying openings are plentiful therefore should not be converted directly into a claim that every worker's market value has risen at the same pace.

Job Availability and Salary Leverage measure different things

One more posting is not the same event as one candidate becoming more valuable. New-business hiring, replacement hiring, repeated hiring inside the same pay band and localized labor shortages can all raise the posting count.

Individual salary leverage depends on role, scarcity of relevant experience and which industries or employers attach higher prices to that experience.

Total posting volume can show the size of the opportunity set. Estimating your own price requires role-level advertised ranges and real offers.

The most common realistic raise expectation was 5% to under 10%

Mynavi surveyed 1,500 full-time workers who had looked for a new job in the prior year. The largest group, 33.2%, said they realistically expected a pay increase of 5% to under 10%. Another 20.3% expected 10% to under 20%, while 19.0% were not particularly seeking an increase.

A total of 68.6% said they could not accept a job change that reduced annual pay, and 87.4% said pay influenced the decision to search for a new job to some degree.

Market-wide advertised-pay growth and the premium an individual expects from changing jobs are different measures. That gap is precisely why role-specific pricing matters.

Look beyond first-year pay to salary trajectory

In Mynavi's survey, the most common condition for accepting an offer below the desired salary was 'future income growth looks likely,' selected by 47.6%. Improved working hours or work style followed at 44.5%.

That suggests job changers consider not only the current offer but also how compensation may develop after the move.

A vague promise of growth is not enough. Promotion structure, expansion of responsibility, projects and customers, and experience that remains valuable in the external market are better evidence for a salary trajectory.

A market with more openings requires finer comparisons

More choice is useful, but more options do not necessarily mean more high-paying options.

Before moving, separate four questions: the current advertised range for your role, the actual offer premium over your current pay, the likely role and compensation path over the next two to three years, and whether the experience gained will remain portable to other employers.

Broad market data can tell you where to start looking. Your personal price still has to be found inside that market.

BANSEOG VIEW | Track your role price, not only the number of openings

In August and September 2026, Japanese full-time postings across four major sites were up by double digits year over year while the average lower-bound advertised monthly pay rose by about 3%. Recent job availability and advertised pricing were not moving at the same speed.

Job changers most commonly expected a 5%-under-10% raise, and future income growth was the most common reason to accept below-target starting pay.

A better career decision therefore asks two separate questions: what is my role priced at today, and what salary trajectory can this move create?

BANSEOG VIEW

Banseog View — Job Availability ≠ Salary Leverage

September full-time postings were +14.67% YoY while average lower-bound advertised monthly pay was +3.24%; August showed a similar +16.25% versus +3.01% split.

The most common realistic expected raise among surveyed job changers was 5% to under 10%, while future income growth was the top condition for accepting below-target pay.

Total openings show the size of the opportunity set; salary leverage requires separate evidence about role price, actual offers and the market value of experience gained after the move.

SOURCES

Primary sources and references

FROG's average advertised monthly pay is not realized employee pay or the salary of all workers in Japan; it is the average lower bound stated in full-time postings on four job-change sites. Posting count is likewise a count of listed jobs, not actual hires. Mynavi's survey covers 1,500 full-time workers who searched for a new job between July 2025 and June 2026 and should not be treated as a census of all Japanese workers. Job Availability, Salary Leverage and Salary Trajectory are Banseog analytical frames connecting the public evidence.